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10/21/02  

A Violent Transition to Democracy

As we react to the obvious problems of terrorism, global markets in disarray, building military coalitions, and economic recession/depression, we may be missing the much larger picture. 

The so-called moderate Arab nations are generally run by repressive monarchies with little political freedoms and virtual disenfranchisement. Despite the presence in some of these lands of oil wealth, the rewards have been hoarded at the top and educational benefits have not been bestowed on the broad populations. While the royal families live in complete opulence, have western education, and appear benevolent, that is not the view of the people.  

In an environment of political isolation and disenfranchisement, radical/revolutionary and clandestine movements have fertile soil. Despite the high-minded rhetoric and ostensibly noble objectives, these movements have often become secular dictatorships more repressive than what they replace. In the 19th century, the ideas of Marx arose during the Industrial Revolution, to explain the transition and posit the concept of a Utopian society where it would be "from each according to his ability, to each according to his need". Unfortunately, this euphoric notion morphed into an agrarian offshoot that became Soviet Communism, which became the scourge of the earth and ended hopes of political freedoms and economic improvement. 

It took 70 years or so for a leader of this corrupted concept- Gorbachev- to recognize the abject and complete bankruptcy of a command economy led by a party that only included 7% of the population. In a similar vein, National Socialism was a transition from an monarchy of sorts to a supposedly democratic concept, that was aborted. It, like communism, morphed into an imperialist hate philosophy that murdered and pillaged committing outrageous acts of genocide.

 Each of these regimes was reduced to ashes only after they were vanquished by the one force with the morality and might to destroy it.... America. Once again we are the last line of defense, simply because Neville Chamberlain was not an isolated leader. Rather, Chamberlain bespoke a broader fear, a fatigue from war, and a "head in the sand" approach to most calamities. Curiously, now, I would definitely exclude England, Canada, and Australia from this broad renunciation of the many democratic nations who fail to recognize freedom must be vigorously defended. Talk's cheap.    

It is ironic that benevolent dictatorships get replaced by malevolent dictatorships on the road to democracy. Part of what is going on in the Middle East is not just a war against Zionism, but also a resentment of the US and the West for supporting what is viewed as harsh and repressive monarchies. The antipathy toward the US from countries like Iran, is the feeling that we propped up a repressive regime for our benefit at the expense of the people. The very sad part of these transitions is that they take decades, often involve widespread wars, and become far more treacherous than what they replace. In a sense, we have unwittingly radicalized the transition. The people attach themselves to promising rhetoric, that preys on hopes and xenophobia and, inevitably are disappointed. In the meantime, the new dictators become so entrenched and so controlling they are difficult to remove. Saddam Hussein is exhibit A.    

In almost every case, these transitions can be and are hijacked by militants, who believe only they can expedite the transition. They cannot and will not compromise, negotiate, temporize, or rationalize their goals or their behavior. They feel only they represent the will and interests of the people. It is empowering that they effectively invoke God in their repression. 

A frustrated population will gravitate to future promises, a common enemy, and throwing out a repressive regime. This xenophobia allows sacrifice and rallying around even a hugely specious design for their future. A David Korash, or a James Jones, on a small scale represents this Utopian concept morphed into harsh repression. A religious backdrop is just a lure to provide sanctity and empowerment. 

In essence, we are talking about messianic movements to democracy that few Americans would argue with, in theory. This is what makes this such a troubling issue. Nobody can quibble with the legitimate aims of the downtrodden. Unfortunately, in fighting the leaders who have hijacked the revolution, we have further alienated the people who are so in need of liberation from their own leaders. They will not be liberated by these sham democrats. It will be years before they realize this, and, by then, the repressive rulers will be firmly entrenched and will hold power with weapons. By that time, the country is more impoverished than ever. Afghanistan is Exhibit B, but Eastern Europe is another example.  

Unfortunately, our World Wars, including the Cold War can be seen in this context. The point of this overview is that as we develop our strategies and attempt to isolate the terrorists and deny them the oxygen to survive, we must also make an appeal to the legitimate aims of the people. If the current rulers of the moderate states saw the inevitability of change, they also would allow greater freedoms and a greater distribution of wealth. They must get the buy-in of the god fearing and peaceful citizens in their midst. The subtleties of this, I believe, are being completely lost in our discussion. 

I am suggesting that the Marshall Plan fulfilled a bit of this function. To a degree, this is a part of appeal we are making to Pakistan. In other words, this is another critical front in this war. Equally, we must encourage a resolution of the Palestinian question. We must attempt to position our nation as a source of economic assistance and democratic support, rather than an evil prop of repressive regimes and source of immorality.

The radical leaders will do everything in their power to present this situation as a battle between the devil US, the supporter of repressive regimes and corrupt values, versus Muslims. We must use all our creative powers to break this bogus equation. Just as we liberated Europe, we must now, as we crush terrorism, also liberate the Middle East, and help with future investment capital, even as we fight the more immediate battles.

If the leadership of the Middle East a decade from now is the same as it is today, I fear we will have made no progress. If we cannot make investments and help create jobs and prosperity, we will have made no progress. If there has been no measure of separation of church and state, we will still have to deal with repressive regimes. 

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